Election Forecast: Slate of races tilt toward GOP

The GOP is tantalizingly close to its goal of taking the House majority in three weeks, after an at-times-uneven, two-year campaign to flip the chamber.

POLITICO’s Election Forecast still rates the race to control the House as “Likely Republican” — but of the dozen newest updates, 10 individual contests moved in Republicans’ direction.

Her rematch against Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich moves from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic,” as the same dynamics present in that summer upset are back. Palin and Begich haven’t made nice — while Peltola has built a formidable war chest ($2.3 million in cash on hand as of Sept. 30) and has the sheen of a winner, at least for the time being,

It would be surprising to see either GOP candidate win another ranked-choice tabulation, if Peltola falls short of a majority on Election Day. 

Democrats’ fortunes decline in Florida might still be a presidential swing state — but it doesn’t look like one this year.

Four House races are moving toward Republicans, driven by two main factors: Gov. Ron DeSantis’ strength at the top of the ticket, and the GOP’s continued improvement among Latino voters.

Two open-seat races, one near Orlando and the other on the fast-growing Gulf Coast, once seen as potentially competitive, have faded from the battleground. Republicans’ top super PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, had booked airtime to win the state’s new House seat, the 15th District, but canceled that this week as GOP nominee Laurel Lee has a commanding lead.

DeSantis’ redistricting push — putting the screws to the chastened GOP-controlled legislature to pass a brutal gerrymander — seems likely to pay dividends.

Democratic Rep. Ron Kind may not have prevailed in a rematch with GOP candidate Derrick Van Orden in western Wisconsin. But Democrats are barely contesting the seat now that Kind is retiring.
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Van Orden leads Democrat Brad Pfaff for the seat, which went for former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in 2020. The race moves from “Lean Republican” to “Likely Republican.”

Democrats are also mounting little effort to unseat Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), despite the fact that Schweikert’s Phoenix metro seat went narrowly for Biden two years ago. Democrat Jevin Hodge is largely fending for himself in the air war, where prices have been driven sky-high by the competitive statewide races.

Schweikert is now the favorite: The race moves from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.”

For the past eight years, Republicans have held up Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker as evidence that the GOP has broad appeal beyond the conservative base.

But both men have been effectively driven into irrelevance by Trump, and the party is all-but-certain to cede those posts in November.

The GOP has other opportunities to win in blue states this year, however. Oregon is a “Toss Up,” and races in Maine, Minnesota and New Mexico are in the “Lean Democratic” category.

 

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